Tijuana’s industrial and commercial real estate market closed in 2019 with a positive net absorption of 3,090,296 million square feet showing overall stable market dynamics with low risk. Let’s look at the factors that contributed to this.

International Trade Normalization: USMCA Ratified, China Tariffs Relaxed

Last year ended on an upswing with the United States and China negotiating the lowering or elimination of some tariffs. The new year started with United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) being approved by U.S. Congress and signed by President Trump. Mexico ratified the USMCA last summer and Canada is expected to ratify it shortly. These positive steps towards trade normalization has manufacturers returning to expansion plans in Mexico.

Leasing Rates Stabilized

Leasing rates in the nearshore manufacturing hub of Tijuana, Baja California, have only increased minutely and stand at $0.48-$0.54/SF for Class A space with industrial parks still offering 1-2 months free rent and tenant improvement allowances. Increased leasing activity is noted for the industrial zones of Otay, Pacifico, and El Florido/Blvd 2000.

Available Space & New Construction

Nearly 2.7 million square feet of industrial space was under construction in Tijuana Mexico at the end of 2019 with build-to-suit projects at 47% and new speculative buildings at 53%. The year closed with 2.21 million square feet available.

Market Activity

Major industrial real estate transactions occurred in 4Q 2019, including Acon (100,303 SF), Centerpiece (113,000 SF), Primer Wheel (150,000 SF), Relevant Group BTS (220,000 SF) and Jacuzzi (132,100 SF).

Source: NAI Mexico